For our reports on predicting the growth potential of Listeria monocytogenes in accordance with all relevant EU regulations, such as EU 2073, we use several models for predictive modelling that are recognised by the Dutch Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NVWA). The physical and chemical analysis data that we use in this predictive modelling schemes are performed on the basis of risk assessments. Before we start our analysis process, we determine specific risks that are related to a product, a process, a packaging concept and/or the intended use of a product.
Reliable predictive modelling can be carried out only if a sound inventory of the product, process, recipe and specific risks has been drawn up. We include the predictive modelling results in a report in accordance with EU 2073, in which we also include standards for all the relevant process parameters. If necessary, we also provide recommendations pertaining to recipes and we support test productions and scale-up tests.
In order to validate processes and to predict microbial product safety risks we use predictive modelling for salmonella and other pathogens. Using these models we can, for example, determine the effectiveness of pasteurisation processes and other heating processes. In order to validate our predictive modelling results we carry out challenge tests using various strains of pathogens or surrogates for these pathogens.
Take a look at all the news reports linked to predictive modelling for examples of cases we solved.